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My main question going into this weekend was, “Will the S&P 500 finish the week above its 200-day moving average?” And while the S&P 500 did indeed finish the week above this long-term trend barometer, our main equity benchmark is now within the gap range from earlier this month.

We’ll get to that crucial S&P 500 chart a little later, but first, I’d like to explain why gaps matter, why the price action post-gap is so important, and then apply these lessons to the SPX.

The “Gap and Run” Scenario Suggests an Influx of Buyers

One of two things tends to happen after a gap higher within an uptrend phase. The first scenario, which I call a “gap and run” pattern, is when additional buyers come in to push the price even higher.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) features this gap and run pattern, with the gap higher on their Q1 earnings report followed by an additional appreciation in price.  Basically, investors are not afraid to accumulate more MSFT, even after the stock gapped up from $395 to $430 overnight.

Did you catch our recent webcast, “Sell in May 2025: Seasonal Strategy or Outdated Myth?” We looked at the performance in May-June-July since the COVID low, then made a comparison between 2025 and the first half of 2022, when a break below the 200-day moving average was a sign of much further deterioration to come.  Check out this excerpt on our YouTube channel!

Shares of Howmet Aerospace (HWM) demonstrated a similar gap and run pattern recently, although this example is perhaps even more significant because the gap took the price to a new all-time high! Again, we can see that additional buyers are coming in and accumulating more HWM, fueling further gains after the gap.

The “Gap and Fail” Pattern Shows a Lack of Willing Buyers

Sometimes, a chart will show a very different path after the gap, forming what I’ve termed a “gap and fail” pattern.  Unlike the previous examples, here you’ll see that a lack of willing buyers causes the stock to quickly reverse lower into the range of the price gap.

In the case of semiconductor producer Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), the gap higher earlier this month was followed by two additional up days, which propelled the stock above its 200-day moving average. This short-term pop higher was followed by a sudden downside reversal, representing an exhaustion of buyers after the upside gap.

First Solar (FSLR) is demonstrating a similar pattern to MPWR, with a gap higher which pushed the stock just above the 200-day moving average to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A couple days later, FSLR was back below the 200-day moving average, followed by further deterioration that eventually closed the gap from earlier in May.

The S&P 500 Could Test Its Own Gap Support

So what do those example charts have to do with the S&P 500? Well, the SPX traded higher for about a week after the upside gap in early May. We’ve drawn a green-shaded range to highlight the gap from around 5725 to 5780. This gap includes the 200-day moving average and also lines up with the late March swing high.

I see the S&P 500 as in a constructive pattern as long as it remains above this price gap range. If we can see an upswing after this week’s pullback, then this could just be a pause within a broader recovery phase for the S&P.

On the other hand, if we see any further price weakness from the major benchmarks next week, then the chart of the S&P 500 will start to look pretty similar to other “gap and fail” charts that confirm a lack of willing buyers. If we do see that downside follow-through next week, we’d expect further deterioration to the 5500 level, representing a 50% retracement of the February to April selloff phase.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In order to invest or trade successfully, you have to have conviction. Conviction does not equal stubbornness. It’s very important to remain objective and occasionally question your conviction and adjust your strategy from time to time if signals warrant it. But I cannot trade personally if I believe there’s a 50/50 chance the market is going higher. That doubt will resonate with each and every swing in the market. I’ll chase at the wrong time and get whipsawed out of positions.

Instead, I evaluate those signals that work best for me – the same signals that have allowed me go against the grain and call significant market tops and bottoms over the past 5-7 years. Few were saying it was time to be long in early April, but I was quite clear. Topping signals were just as evident to me earlier this year, leading me to tell EarningsBeats.com members that I was 100% cash at the end of January. The technical confirmation of a market top occurred on Friday, February 21st. I published my belief of that confirmed market top in this same blog – again rather clearly:

You can click on this headline and read the whole story, if you’d like. After letting EB.com members know that I was fully committed on the long side in early April, because of bullish market maker manipulation, I have continued to track that market maker manipulation. Through Friday, it’s still telling me the same thing – BUY US STOCKS!

The Manipulation Continues

Listen, we’ve seen a massive run higher off that early-April low and profit taking and pullbacks will occur. That cannot deter us and should not be misconstrued as distribution ahead of a major market decline. In fact, there are a lot of technicians and market analysts talking about the big selling that’s taken place over the past week and how that will lead to further selling ahead. I completely disagree with this crew. We’ve seen almost zero selling or distribution in recent days. What we’ve seen are more gap downs, just like the ones that occurred after the March 13th low. Those opening and early morning selloffs saw subsequent buying throughout trading sessions. Check out the accumulation/distribution indicator on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 below:

S&P 500

You can see the AD line take a bit of a hit during the true period of distribution in 2025. Currently, however, the AD line is very near its all-time high. Last week (since Monday’s close), the SPY lost 15.74, falling from 594.85 to Friday’s close at 579.11. That was roughly a 2.5% pullback, but here’s what’s interesting. The SPY had gap downs the past four trading days that totaled 13.65. Nearly all of last week’s drop occurred at the opening bell. There was little selling during the trading day. We track this manipulative behavior in our “2025 Key Stocks Manipulation” excel spreadsheet, which we update for our members every Monday morning, so our members can clearly see the manipulation taking place on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and 11 individual stocks, including Mag 7 stocks and a few others. It’s independent research and has helped us completely ignore the bearish and biased media. They’re interested in viewership and clicks and will scare the heck out of everyone to achieve their own selfish, money-making goals. EarningsBeats.com is interested in helping folks navigate a landscape designed to misinform and mislead. We’re interested in making money, that’s it. Follow the charts, not the headlines.

NASDAQ 100

The AD line exploded higher on the NASDAQ 100, mostly because Mag 7 stocks were heavily accumulated during the early-April massacre. The same thing occurred in March 2020 during the pandemic, prior to these stocks skyrocketing later in 2020. Then we saw a repeat in 2022, before a massive explosion higher in 2023. Once again, we’re seeing Wall Street’s “rinse and repeat” strategy of effectively stealing shares from unsuspecting retail traders. And once again, these stocks have been flying again.

It’s up to us to learn these lessons and not make the same mistakes over and over again during cyclical bear markets. At EarningsBeats.com, we take advantage of these selloffs before they occur. First, we move to cash. Next, we watch the stocks tumble. Third, we buy back in much cheaper at the same time that Wall Street does. Doesn’t this sound like a much better strategy? Follow what Wall Street is buying, not what they’re saying.

This manipulation applies to an even greater extent to individual stocks. One of my favorite stocks has been ridiculously-manipulated in 2025. Over the past four trading days, while the S&P 500 has been under pressure, this stock has gapped down 3.13, but has moved 8 bucks higher during the trading day. It’s one of our 12 individual stocks that we track each week and showed the most manipulation last week. Its AD line is soaring again and its relative strength vs. its industry peers has exploded higher since the first week of March. Owning stocks like this help us significantly outperform the S&P 500.

I’m featuring this stock in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Tuesday morning. To register for our newsletter and receive this stock Tuesday morning before the market opens, simply CLICK HERE and provide your name and email address. Again, it’s free, there’s no credit card required, and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Our Spring Special, HUGE Savings

We run specials from time to time to allow new members an opportunity to enjoy our service for a year at a major discount. We started our annual Spring Special this past week and it runs through Monday at midnight. If you’d like to change your approach to the stock market and be more proactive, please consider taking advantage of this special. For more information and to Start Your Annual Membership Today, follow this link.

Happy trading!

Tom

On Wednesday, only 4% of the S&P 500’s holdings logged gains — a pretty rare occurrence. Since the start of 2024, this has only happened three other times:

• August 5, 2024: The last day of the summer correction
• December 18, 2024: The Fed’s hawkish cut
• April 4, 2025: Tariffs

Let’s recall that major trading lows were etched last August, and again just a few weeks ago in early April. The S&P 500 ($SPX) dropped 10% and 21%, respectively, from its peak to trough both times, with the lows being marked by emphatic capitulation events (April 7 was the real pivot low). The market’s rubber band violently snapped back in the ensuing weeks, both times.

FIGURE 1. PAST LOWS IN THE S&P 500 INDEX. Note the rebounds following the August 5, December 18, and April 4 drops.With the SPX now having gained 20% from the April low, the setup is more like mid-December 2024. The index had just gained 19% from early August through early December and was hovering near 6,100. The FOMC’s actions put a major dent in the calm uptrend.

The S&P 500 didn’t completely crumble after that, spending the next 10 weeks backing and filling. But the market’s character changed, and the cracks eventually gave way to the waterfall decline.

So, what does that tell us about this moment? There’s a clear risk given the one-sided advance the last few weeks, but, with bullish patterns still in play and the $SPX having built up a big cushion, it can afford to back and fill again now. It’s the first gut punch in four weeks, and the market must prove it can absorb it.

Short-Term View of the S&P 500

The drawdown measured from this Monday’s high now stands at -2.4% — most of which happened on Wednesday. Given how small the moves have been over the last few weeks, Wednesday’s big decline hit the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart very hard. It’s now at 41, which is very close to the 30-oversold threshold.

Again, we’ve seen the short-term indicator fall to oversold territory several times, even during the market’s upswing from August through December. Seeing that happen again this time wouldn’t be a surprise. If it happens, it will be important to see the ensuing bounce pull the SPX back to overbought territory relatively soon. Remember, we went nearly four months between overbought readings from late January through mid-May.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500 WITH RSI.

S&P 500 Patterns

Despite the sell-off, there was no change in the patterns at work. The two bullish patterns remain in play, with targets of 6,125 and 6,555, respectively. The S&P 500 started Thursday, at about 2.5% above the last breakout zone (5,695).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 WITH BULLISH PATTERNS. Here you see the pattern with a 6,125 target.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 WITH 6,555 PRICE TARGET.

Monitor the VIX

Not surprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) gained 15% on Wednesday in response to the market’s sell-off. It remains close to 20, but continues to log higher lows, which has been the trend since late 2024. Indeed, it’s way off spike highs from April, but it’s a trend worth watching.

Let’s recall that the VIX never truly capitulated in 2022, but its trend of higher lows coincided with the equity market’s downtrend. When the SPX logged a true low in October 2022, lower lows in the VIX became evident. This lasted through this past summer.

If the snapback in the SPX turns into a longer, new uptrend, the VIX’s uptrend will morph into a downtrend again.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX).

Bonds Display Bullish Patterns

The bullish pattern in the weekly 30-Year Treasury yields and 10-Year Treasury yields is crystal clear. An acceleration through the 2023 highs after Wednesday would have an obvious negative effect on stocks.

As discussed before, the equity market has shown it can advance with higher rates, as long as said rates go higher gradually. The intermittent up-moves in rates have been capped for the last two years as well. Thus, stocks have been able to withstand it. That wasn’t the case from January to September 2022, and that’s the potential concern.

FIGURE 6. WEEKLY CHART OF THE 30-YEAR US TRASURY YIELD INDEX.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF THE 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD INDEX.

Bitcoin Holding Strong

So far, Bitcoin has maintained noticeable relative strength even as stocks got hit hard on Wednesday. Simply put, continuing to hold above this breakout zone would keep the new measured move target of 142k in play.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD WITH ITS MEASURED MOVE TARGET.

From another perspective, this move can also be viewed as the fourth wedge breakout since 2023. The prior three times, BTC’s 14-week RSI stayed very overbought for weeks before slowing down. The 14-week RSI is just approaching overbought levels, which suggests it has further to go.

FIGURE 9. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD WITH WEDGE BREAKOUTS AND RSI.