Investing

How is gold traded?

Before discovering what the highest gold price ever was, it’s worth looking at how the precious metal is traded. Knowing the mechanics behind gold’s historical moves can help illuminate why and how its price changes.

Gold bullion is traded in dollars and cents per ounce, with activity taking place worldwide at all hours, resulting in a live price for the metal. Investors trade gold in major commodities markets such as New York, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong. London is seen as the center of physical precious metals trading, including for silver. The COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is home to most paper trading.

There are many popular ways to invest in gold. The first is through purchasing gold bullion products such as bullion bars, bullion coins and rounds. Physical gold is sold on the spot market, meaning that buyers pay a specific price per ounce for the metal and then have it delivered. In some parts of the world, such as India, buying gold in the form of jewelry is the largest and most traditional route to investing in gold.

Another path to gold investment is paper trading, which is done through the gold futures market. Participants enter into gold futures contracts for the delivery of gold in the future at an agreed-upon price. In such contracts, two positions can be taken: a long position under which delivery of the metal is accepted or a short position to provide delivery of the metal. Paper trading as a means to invest in gold can provide investors with the flexibility to liquidate assets that aren’t available to those who possess physical gold bullion.

One significant long-term advantage of trading in the paper market is that investors can benefit from gold’s safe-haven status without needing to store it. Furthermore, gold futures trading can offer more financial leverage in that it requires less capital than trading in the physical market.

Interestingly, investors can also purchase physical gold via the futures market, but the process is complicated and lengthy and comes with a large investment and additional costs.

Aside from those options, market participants can invest in gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investing in a gold ETF is similar to trading a gold stock on an exchange, and there are numerous gold ETF options to choose from. For instance, some ETFs focus solely on physical gold bullion, while others focus on gold futures contracts. Other gold ETFs center on gold-mining stocks or follow the gold spot price.

It is important to understand that you will not own any physical gold when investing in an ETF — in general, even a gold ETF that tracks physical gold cannot be redeemed for tangible metal.

With regards to the performance of gold versus trading stocks, gold has an interesting relationship with the stock market. The two often move in sync during “risk-on periods” when investors are bullish. On the flip side, they tend to become inversely correlated in times of volatility. There are a variety of options for investing in stocks, including gold mining stocks on the TSX and ASX, gold juniors, precious metals royalty companies and gold stocks that pay dividends.

According to the World Gold Council, gold’s ability to decouple from the stock market during periods of stress makes it “unique amongst most hedges in the marketplace.” It is often during these times that gold outperforms the stock market. For that reason, it is often used as a portfolio diversifier to hedge against uncertainty.

What was the highest gold price ever?

The gold price peaked at US$2,880.22, its all-time high, on February 5, 2025. What drove it to set this new ATH?

Gold set a new record high on February 5 as new US President Donald Trump proposed that the US would resettle Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and then develop it into ‘the Riviera of the Middle East.’ The suggestion has been condemned globally.

This marked the fifth trading day in a row with a new gold high as uncertainty continues to reign under Trump. Concerns over trading wars led to highs earlier in the week, after Trump confirmed over the weekend he would enact extensive tariffs on North American allies Canada and Mexico beginning February 4. The two countries returned the favor, announcing retaliatory tariffs. On February 3, following talks with Mexico’s and Canada’s leaders, Trump agreed to delay the tariffs by one month.

The prior week, the gold price set new highs in all currencies alongside a weakening US dollar, the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged, a rush to safe haven assets and the looming threat of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on February 1. Additionally, new US economic data showed inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the country increased an annualized 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 after rising 3.1 percent in the third quarter.

Gold has seen upward momentum in the last year on a variety of factors. In 2025, the gold price was on the rise early in the new year as President Trump and his team began to talk seriously about a wide-ranging set of tariffs on several countries in the run-up and following his inauguration on January 20.

Gold also reacted to a weaker-than-expected US private employment report on January 8, which showed that the economy added 122,000 jobs in the private sector in December, below the estimated 140,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest US jobs report on January 10, showing that nonfarm payrolls for December 2024 rose the most since March 2024, while unemployment fell to 4.1 percent.

On January 29, the Bank of Canada shaved 25 basis points off its policy interest rate, marking its sixth consecutive decrease, and announced plans to end quantitative tightening. On the same day, the US Federal Reserve opted to leave its interest rate unchanged. The following day, President Trump announced it very likely will be placing 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada as of February 1, alongside tariffs on the EU and China.

As for gold demand, on October 30 the World Gold Council reported that gold purchases from undocumented sources and gold ETF inflows were both drivers of demand growth in Q3 2024. On the other hand, central bank gold purchases were down during the quarter.

Read our in-depth breakdown of gold’s recent price performance below.

What factors have driven the gold price in the last five years?

Despite these recent runs, gold has seen its share of both peaks and troughs over the last decade. After remaining rangebound between US$1,100 and US$1,300 from 2014 to early 2019, gold pushed above US$1,500 in the second half of 2019 on a softer US dollar, rising geopolitical issues and a slowdown in economic growth.

Gold’s first breach of the significant US$2,000 price level in mid-2020 was due in large part to economic uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To break through that barrier and reach what was then a record high, the yellow metal added more than US$500, or 32 percent, to its value in the first eight months of 2020.

The gold price surpassed that level again in early 2022 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine collided with rising inflation around the world, increasing the allure of safe-haven assets and pulling the yellow metal up to a price of US$2,074.60 on March 8, 2022. However, it fell throughout the rest of 2022, dropping below US$1,650 in October.

What’s next for the gold price?

What’s next for the gold price is never an easy call to make. There are many factors that affect the gold price, but some of the most prevalent long-term drivers include economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost and momentum.

Economic expansion is one of the primary gold price contributors as it facilitates demand growth in several categories, including jewelry, technology and investment. As the World Gold Council explains, “This is particularly true in developing economies where gold is often used as a luxury item and a means to preserve wealth.” Market risk is also a prime catalyst for gold values as investors view the precious metal as the “ultimate safe haven,” and a hedge against currency depreciation, inflation and other systemic risks.

Going forward, in addition to the Fed, inflation and geopolitical events, experts will be looking for cues from factors like supply and demand. In terms of supply, the world’s five top gold producers are China, Australia, Russia, Canada and the US. The consensus in the gold market is that major miners have not spent enough on gold exploration in recent years. Gold mine production has fallen from around 3,200 to 3,300 metric tons each year between 2018 and 2020 to around 3,000 to 3,100 metric tons each year between 2021 and 2023.

On the demand side, China and India are the biggest buyers of physical gold, and are in a perpetual fight for the title of world’s largest gold consumer. That said, it’s worth noting that the last few years have brought a big rebound in central bank gold buying, which dropped to a record low in 2020, but reached a 55 year high of 1,136 metric tons in 2022.

The World Gold Council has reported that central bank gold purchases in 2023 came to 1,037 metric tons, marking the second year in a row above 1,000 MT. In the first half of 2024, the organization says gold purchases from central banks reached a record 483 metric tons.

David Barrett, CEO of the UK division of global brokerage firm EBC Financial Group, is also keeping an eye on central bank purchases of gold.

In addition to central bank moves, analysts are also watching for escalating tensions in the Middle East, a weakening US dollar, declining bond yields, and further interest rate cuts as factors that could push gold higher as investors look to secure their portfolios.

Speaking at the Metals Investor Forum, held in Vancouver, British Columbia, this September, Eric Coffin, editor of Hard Rock Analyst, outlined those key factors as supporting his prediction that gold could reach US$2,800 by the end of 2024.

“When it comes to outside factors that affect the market, it’s just tailwind after tailwind after tailwind. So I don’t really see the trend changing,” Coffin said.

Also speaking at the Metals Investor Forum, Jeff Clark, founder and editor at TheGoldAdvisor.com, was even more bullish on the precious metal. He sees Santa delivering US$3,000 gold as a good possibility.

However, others see gold taking a little longer to breach the US$3,000 level. Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual gathering in October have forecasted a gold price of US$2,941 in the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is predicting gold will hit US$2,900 in early 2025, as it expects to see an increase in gold ETF inflows, continued central bank buying and interest rate cuts, as well as further conflicts in the Middle East.

Should you beware of gold price manipulation?

As a final note on the price of gold and buying gold bullion, it’s important for investors to be aware that gold price manipulation is a hot topic in the industry.

In 2011, when gold hit what was then a record high, it dropped swiftly in just a few short years. This decline after three years of impressive gains led many in the gold sector to cry foul and point to manipulation. Early in 2015, 10 banks were hit in a US probe on precious metals manipulation. Evidence provided by Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) showed “smoking gun” proof that UBS Group (NYSE:UBS), HSBC Holdings (NYSE:HSBC), the Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) and other firms were involved in rigging gold and silver rates in the market from 2007 to 2013.

Not long after, the long-running London gold fix was replaced by the LBMA gold price in a bid to increase gold price transparency. The twice-a-day process, operated by the ICE Benchmark Administration, still involves a variety of banks collaborating to set the gold price, but the system is now electronic.

Still, manipulation has by no means been eradicated, as a 2020 fine on JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) shows. The next year, chat logs were released in a spoofing trial for two former precious metals traders from the Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) Merrill Lynch unit. They show a trader bragging about how easy it is to manipulate the gold price.

Gold market participants have consistently spoken out about manipulation. In mid-2020, Chris Marcus, founder of Arcadia Economics and author of the book “The Big Silver Short,” said that when gold fell back below the US$2,000 mark after hitting close to US$2,070, he saw similarities to what happened with the gold price in 2011.

Marcus has been following the gold and silver markets with a focus specifically on price manipulation for nearly a decade. His advice? “Trust your gut. I believe we’re witnessing the ultimate ’emperor’s really naked’ moment. This isn’t complex financial analysis. Sometimes I think of it as the greatest hypnotic thought experiment in history.”